Step by step
How a number is built
- 1Official ADM history collection: complete, cleaned and versioned draws.
- 2Feature engineering: delays, frequencies, cyclometric relationships and other descriptive indicators.
- 3Calibrated ML model: trained on the past and tuned so the stated confidence matches the real frequency.
- 4Confidence + backtest: every suggestion ships with a calibrated score, validated walk-forward with no lookahead.
Calibration
What 'calibrated' means
A model is calibrated when the confidence it states matches how often it's right: if it assigns 0.7 confidence to a group of predictions, about 70% of them should turn out correct. We measure this gap with ECE (Expected Calibration Error): the lower it is, the more trustworthy the confidence.
On 10eLotto we add a conformal set: from the calibration sample we derive the threshold above which a number enters the set, so the selection states its own uncertainty instead of hiding it. On the other games it is not computed and is not shown: we prefer a missing figure to one asserted without measurement.
Illustrative reliability diagram: the closer the points to the diagonal, the better calibrated the model.
ECE and conformal prediction, in brief
ECE (Expected Calibration Error) groups predictions by confidence level and, in each group, compares the average stated confidence with the observed success frequency. The weighted mean of these gaps is the ECE: the closer to zero, the more trustworthy the confidence.
Conformal prediction does not promise a single number: it defines a set of candidates from a threshold estimated on the calibration sample (the α-quantile of observed probabilities). It is currently active on 10eLotto; out-of-sample empirical coverage has not been verified yet, and until it is we state no percentage.
Three levels
High, Medium, Low — readable at a glance
- High: pattern consistent over the long run
- Medium: signal detected but with variance
- Low: weak hint, to weigh with caution
- Never presented as a probability of winning
What the score is NOT
It is a measure of consistency of the detected pattern, not a probability of winning. High confidence does not guarantee the outcome: it only signals that the pattern is solid against history. The future stays uncertain and the game's expected value (EV) negative.