The problem
The risk of ruin
On a negative expected-value (EV) game, betting too much or chasing losses leads to ruin: sooner or later the bankroll hits zero. It's not bad luck, it's math — bet sizing and the lack of limits matter more than any single play.
That's why we apply a staking discipline and system-enforced limits. In the chart, the unprotected path falls until it hits zero (ruin); the protected one stays above the stop-loss threshold and survives.
Estimated risk of ruin
Illustrative scheme. Risk-of-ruin reduction measured on no-lookahead backtests; it does not guarantee wins.
Capped Kelly and stop-loss, in brief
The Kelly criterion tells you which fraction of the bankroll to allocate based on the statistical edge. On a negative expected-value game the ideal fraction would be zero: that's why we apply it capped, enforcing a prudent ceiling that avoids aggressive stakes even when a pattern looks strong.
The stop-loss sets a threshold beyond which you stop, limiting the maximum drawdown. Combined with server-side limits (not bypassable client-side), it keeps the risk of ruin near to zero — without making the game profitable.
The tools
How it protects you
- Capped Kelly: the stake never exceeds a prudent fraction of the budget
- Automatic stop-loss: it halts before eroding capital beyond the threshold
- Server-side limits: enforced by the system, not bypassable client-side
- Risk of ruin cut near to zero (no-lookahead backtest)
The budget
The annual budget per game
The average Italian gambler spends about 1,165 € a year (ADM source, Libro Blu: 21.5 billion € net national spend over 18.45 million players) — but that figure includes slot machines and VLTs, which are not our user, so we discarded it. The right scope is numeric games only: there ADM net spend is 250-450 € a year, rounded up to 500 € a year per game, with four separate bankrolls instead of one.
From 500 €/year comes the per-draw cap: 2.40 € on Lotto and SuperEnalotto, 1.37 € on 10eLotto and MillionDAY. The public track record spends 3,023 €/year today — about two and a half times the Italian average — but the only game over budget is Lotto (2,085 €/year): 10eLotto, MillionDAY and SuperEnalotto are already within it. None of these caps changes the expected value: they change how long the bankroll survives and how readable the curve is.
What does NOT change
Cutting the risk of ruin protects the budget, but it does not make the game profitable: the expected value stays negative. These tools help you play sustainably and responsibly, not to win. If gambling becomes a problem, contact the TVNGA helpline 800 558822.