The problem
The risk of ruin
On a negative expected-value (EV) game, betting too much or chasing losses leads to ruin: sooner or later the bankroll hits zero. It's not bad luck, it's math — bet sizing and the lack of limits matter more than any single play.
That's why we apply a staking discipline and system-enforced limits. In the chart, the unprotected path falls until it hits zero (ruin); the protected one stays above the stop-loss threshold and survives.
Estimated risk of ruin
Illustrative scheme. Risk-of-ruin reduction measured on no-lookahead backtests; it does not guarantee wins.
Capped Kelly and stop-loss, in brief
The Kelly criterion tells you which fraction of the bankroll to allocate based on the statistical edge. On a negative expected-value game the ideal fraction would be zero: that's why we apply it capped, enforcing a prudent ceiling that avoids aggressive stakes even when a pattern looks strong.
The stop-loss sets a threshold beyond which you stop, limiting the maximum drawdown. Combined with server-side limits (not bypassable client-side), it keeps the risk of ruin near to zero — without making the game profitable.
The tools
How it protects you
- Capped Kelly: the stake never exceeds a prudent fraction of the budget
- Automatic stop-loss: it halts before eroding capital beyond the threshold
- Server-side limits: enforced by the system, not bypassable client-side
- Risk of ruin cut near to zero (no-lookahead backtest)
What does NOT change
Cutting the risk of ruin protects the budget, but it does not make the game profitable: the expected value stays negative. These tools help you play sustainably and responsibly, not to win. If gambling becomes a problem, contact the TVNGA helpline 800 558822.